Republican Debate: Five Things to Watch
The Republican [url=http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/p/presidential_debates/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier][color=#004276]presidential debates[/color][/url] of 2011 have served as high-stakes introductions for several of the party’s Oval Office hopefuls as the Republican field slowly expanded this summer.Now, it’s Rick Perry’s turn.
On Wednesday evening, Mr. Perry, the governor of Texas, will face off against seven other candidates — [url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/michele-bachmann?inline=nyt-per][color=#004276]Michele Bachmann[/color][/url], [url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/herman-cain?inline=nyt-per][color=#004276]Herman Cain[/color][/url], [url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/newt-gingrich?inline=nyt-per][color=#004276]Newt Gingrich[/color][/url], [url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/jon-huntsman?scp=1-spot&sq=jon%20m.%20huntsman%20jr.&st=cse][color=#004276]Jon M. Huntsman Jr.[/color][/url], [url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/ron-paul?inline=nyt-per][color=#004276]Ron Paul[/color][/url], [url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/mitt-romney?inline=nyt-per][color=#004276]Mitt Romney[/color][/url] and [url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/rick-santorum?inline=nyt-per][color=#004276]Rick Santorum[/color][/url] — during a debate at the Reagan library in Simi Valley, Calif.
But none of his rivals will be under the microscope — or wearing as large a target — as Mr. Perry. In three short weeks since becoming a candidate, Mr. Perry has become the new front-runner and the media focus on his record and his comments has robbed the other candidates of political oxygen.
As a result, Mr. Perry enters the debate, which begins at 8 p.m. on Wednesday, with a lot to gain from a solid performance, but also a lot to lose — among donors, activists, the Republican establishment — if he stumbles or seems out of the mainstream.
The governor’s aides have spent several days trying to lower expectations by arguing that Mr. Perry has not had that much experience on a high-stakes debate stage despite his decade as his state’s chief executive.
Ray Sullivan, the governor’s communications director, said on MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown” on Wednesday morning that Mr. Perry had participated in only four big-time debates. Mr. Sullivan said the governor is better at speeches and small-group retail politics.
The need for Mr Perry to prove himself — and for his rivals to elbow for attention and stop his momentum — could spell a more spirited debate on Wednesday. Here are five things to watch for during the two-hour show.
[b]1. How Does Perry Perform?[/b] A veteran politician, Mr. Perry’s stump speech is polished and his manner is easygoing after just weeks on the campaign trail. If that Rick Perry shows up at the debate, he may have a good night.
But beyond style, Mr. Perry is likely to be confronted with a series of substantive questions that could affect the public’s early perception of his candidacy. His writings about [url=http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/s/social_security_us/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier][color=#004276]Social Security[/color][/url], gays, guns, religion and abortion are likely to be prime targets for the [url=http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/nbc_universal/index.html?inline=nyt-org][color=#004276]NBC[/color][/url] and Politico journalists who are hosting the forum.
And his rivals may decide that the best way to get the camera to swing in their direction is to attack Mr. Perry. That could come from Mrs. Bachmann, whose struggling campaign has lost momentum — and a campaign manager — since Mr. Perry entered the race. Or it could come from Mr. Huntsman, whose poll numbers are in the basement.
Part of Mr. Perry’s challenge during the debate is to send a message to the Republican Party’s mainstream establishment that he can be a standard-bearer for the entire party, not just a conservative wing that is appealing in the Deep South.
If wealthy donors and Republican insiders conclude that Mr. Perry’s politics are too narrow to win an election against President Obama, that could be a problem as the governor competes against Mr. Romney.
But the early polls suggest that Mr. Perry is already beginning to satisfy a broader constituency. A survey by ABC and the Washington Post this week showed Mr. Perry beating Mr. Romney on what has been perceived as perhaps Mr. Romney’s greatest strength: the idea that he is the most electable of the Republican candidates seeking to replace Mr. Obama. Mr. Perry now leads Mr. Romney on that question, by a margin of 30 percent to 20 percent.
That result comes as the Mr. Perry is still not very well known, however, which makes his performance on Wednesday night that much more important. A shaky showing could turn those electability numbers around quickly.
[b]2. Romney-Perry Smackdown? [/b]The most watched-for clash of the night is the one that might materialize between Mr. Perry and Mr. Romney. With Mrs. Bachmann fading in the polls (and with [url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/sarah-palin?inline=nyt-per][color=#004276]Sarah Palin[/color][/url] still on the sidelines), attention is increasingly focused on the possibility of a two-person race between the two men.
After weeks of completely ignoring his rivals, Mr. Romney has altered his stump speech to question Mr. Perry’s qualifications. His new line attacks Mr. Perry’s decade as governor of Texas by saying that “career politicians got us into this mess. Career politicians aren’t going to get us out.”
That line is almost sure to escape Mr. Romney’s lips, perhaps during an opening statement. But will he get tougher than that and attack Mr. Perry directly? That may depend on how Mr. Perry acts. The brash, Texas politician has shown less hesitance to focus his commentary directly at Mr. Romney, saying that “while he was the governor of Massachusetts he didn’t create many jobs.”
[b]3. Jobs, jobs, jobs.[/b] The president’s looming jobs speech all but ensures that the topic of jobs will play a central role in Wednesday’s debate, even though the speech was moved to Thursday night.
The moderators of the debate are sure to ask all of the candidates about their plans to create jobs and turn the economy around. That will give each one an opportunity to spell out what they are for, and another opportunity to bash Mr. Obama’s economic policies.
Mr. Romney on Tuesday announced a 59-point plan that he said would generate jobs and help the economy recover. It is almost a certainty that he will try to mention at least some of the 59 on Wednesday. (Mr. Romney is a fan of PowerPoint presentations, but the rules of the debate probably do not allow any multimedia props.)
All of the candidates recognize that confronting the jobs crisis is an opportunity for the Republicans as anger and frustration over the issue has helped drive down Mr. Obama’s poll numbers in recent months.
But the issue is not one that provides much contrast between the candidates. One exception is Ron Paul, whose libertarian views on the best economic path forward often make him the outlier on the stage.
[b]4. Reagan’s legacy.[/b] It has almost become a cliché for leading Republican politicians to claim Reagan’s mantle. But it is especially true at a debate hosted at a library dedicated to Reagan’s presidency. And [url=http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/nancy_reagan/index.html?inline=nyt-per][color=#004276]Nancy Reagan[/color][/url], his widow, is expected to be at the debate, probably in the front row.
But even Reagan is not a subject that is free from division, as was proved on Tuesday by a spat between the two Texans, Mr. Paul and Mr. Perry.
Mr. Paul ran a television ad in Iowa and New Hampshire that compared him to Reagan, saying both men were considered unelectable. He notes his own support for Reagan’s campaign and accuses Mr. Perry of supporting the early campaigns of [url=http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/al_gore/index.html?inline=nyt-per][color=#004276]Al Gore[/color][/url].
“Al Gore found a cheerleader in Texas named Rick Perry. Rick Perry helped lead Al Gore’s campaign to undo the Reagan revolution,” Mr. Paul’s ad says.
Mr. Perry’s campaign shot back quickly, unearthing a letter that Mr. Paul wrote in 1987 in which he resigns from the Republican Party. “[url=http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/ronald_wilson_reagan/index.html?inline=nyt-per][color=#004276]Ronald Reagan[/color][/url] and the [url=http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/r/republican_party/index.html?inline=nyt-org][color=#004276]Republican Party[/color][/url] have given us skyrocketing deficits, and astoundingly a doubled [url=http://topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/subjects/n/national_debt_us/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier][color=#004276]national debt[/color][/url],” Mr. Paul wrote in 1987. A spokesman for Mr. Perry said that “Rep. Paul’s letter is a broadside attack on every element of President Reagan’s record and philosophy.”
With that as a backdrop, expect a bit of talk about Reagan at the debate.
[b]5. [url=http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/t/tea_party_movement/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier][color=#004276]Tea Party[/color][/url].[/b] If the Labor Day weekend proved anything, it is that the Republican candidates for president are still eager to woo the Tea Party movement that proved to be a force in politics during the 2010 midterm elections.
Mr. Romney, who had not embraced the movement as openly as many of his rivals, spent the weekend at a New Hampshire rally for a Tea Party group and attended a forum in South Carolina sponsored by the state’s leading Tea Party politicians. Ms. Palin also spoke at Tea Party rallies in Iowa and New Hampshire over the weekend.
The question may be how much the candidates put that effort on hold Wednesday night in front of an audience on MSNBC that might not have much in common with Tea Party advocates. (Just a few days later, in Florida, CNN is co-hosting another debate with a national Tea Party group.)
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