12月14日双语资讯：全球资产价格泡沫
欧美主要经济学家警告说，如果央行和政府重犯过去将宽松货币和支出政策保持太久的错误，就有产生资产价格泡沫的危险。Top economists from the U.S. and Europe warned of the danger of creating asset-price bubbles if central banks and governments repeat the past mistake of keeping expansive monetary and spending policies in place for too long.
过去两年的金融危机在某种程度上归咎于政策制定者的决定，尤其是美联储在2001年衰退后不顾经济复苏的事实仍将利率维持在非常低的水平。
The financial crisis of the past two years is blamed partly on decisions by policy makers, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, to keep interest rates very low after the 2001 downturn, despite a recovering economy.
摩根士丹利亚洲区主席罗奇(Stephen Roach)在柏林由哥伦比亚大学举办的一个会议上说，这种政策是资产泡沫的温床。
Such a policy is a 'breeding ground' for asset bubbles, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said at a conference in Berlin organized by Columbia University.
这次会议为全球央行和财政部门提出了一个热门话题：如何安全地撤回向银行体系中注入的数以万亿的美元、欧元和日圆，以及何时控制在数十年来最为严重的衰退中大幅膨胀的预算赤字。
The meeting echoed a hot topic for central bankers and finance ministries globally: how to safely withdraw the trillions of dollars, euros and yen they have pumped into banking sectors, and when to rein in budget deficits that have ballooned amid the worst recession in decades.
虽然全球经济增长和金融市场复苏的速度快于去年夏季的预期，但美联储和欧洲央行似乎并没有准备冒险。
Although global growth and financial markets are rebounding more quickly than was expected last summer, the Fed and the European Central Bank don't appear to be taking any chances.
两家央行发出的强烈信号是，他们可能在2010年多数时间里也将主导利率维持在极低的水平，尽管外界预计他们将在未来几个月里退出其它一些支持银行业的措施。
Both central banks have sent strong signals that they will probably keep key interest rates extremely low until well into 2010, although they are expected in coming months to unwind some other measures of support for the banking sector.
与此同时，许多政府也谈到要逐步削减债务和赤字，但目前尚没有这么做。
Many governments, meanwhile, have talked about cutting debt and deficits over time, but not yet.
一些分析师认为，在近几个月来的快速上扬后，包括新兴市场和公司债券市场的某些资产的价格已经出现了难以持续的上涨。
Some analysts believe certain asset prices, including in emerging markets and corporate bond markets, may already be rising unsustainably, following a speedy recovery in recent months.
与会者说，支持经济复苏，同时避免新的泡沫产生是决策者面临的一个非常微妙的平衡。其中一个问题是如何识别泡沫：大学经济学教授索伊加(Gylfi Zoega)说，当它发生时，你还不能肯定。在去年的金融混乱导致冰岛银行体系崩溃后，索伊加加入了冰岛央行的委员会。
Supporting the economic recovery while avoiding new bubbles is a tricky balance for policy makers, participants said. One problem is how to spot a bubble: 'When it is happening, you don't know for sure,' said Gylfi Zoega, a university economics professor who joined the board of Iceland's central bank after the country's banking system collapsed amid last year's financial chaos.
新泡沫通常的预警标志──通货膨胀率上升──可能暂时还不会出现。许多经济学家说，2008年底始于美国的全球严重经济衰退造成了严重的低迷，这将会限制工资和物价的涨幅。
The usual warning sign of new bubbles, rising inflation, may not emerge for some time. The severe global downturn that began in the U.S. at the end of 2008 opened up a tremendous amount of slack that will keep a lid on wages and prices, many economists say.
美联储前主席沃尔克(Paul Volcker)在柏林的会议上说，政府目前还不应该从刺激措施中退出，而挑战是在这种必要性显得明显之前让政策更加节制。
Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker told the Berlin meeting that government stimulus measures shouldn't be withdrawn just yet, and that the challenge is to make policy more restrictive before the need becomes obvious.
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