2020年世界大国格局猜想 大国, 格局, 世界, 猜想

yoyo530521

What will life be like in America, Europe, Japan or China in the year 2020？

As everyone's lives across the world are become increasingly interconnected by globalization and new technologies quicken the pace of everything, the answer to that question depends on the fate and paths of the world's major nations.   In Futurecast, Robert Shapiro, former U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce and Chairman/Co-founder of Sonecon, looks into the future to tell us what our world will over the next dozen years.  

Though that time span seems brief, Shapiro foresees monumental(adj.纪念碑的，有重大意义的) changes caused by three historic new forces—globalization, the aging of societies, and the rise of America as a sole superpower with no near peer— will determine the paths of nations and the lives of countless millions.

• Even as China expands its military and its economy, America will be the world's sole superpower for at least the next generation, and continue to lead efforts to preserve global security and stability.  

• The U.S. and China will be the world's two indispensable(adj.不可缺少的) economies, dominating the course of globalization.  

• Globalization will continue to shift most heavy manufacturing（重工业）and millions of high-end service jobs from advanced countries like the US, to China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Romania, Turkey and other developing nations.

• Europe's major nations and Japan will face the prospect of genuine economic decline and critical problems in their retirement pension systems, moving further towards the periphery（n.外围，边缘地段）of global economic and geopolitical（adj.地理政治学，地缘政治学的） power.

• Every major country—the U.S., Europe, Japan, China—will face critical problems with their health care systems, and the entire world will face a crisis over energy and climate change.

      由于全球化使世界各地人们的联系更为密切，新兴技术又加快了任何事物的发展速度，世界大国的命运和发展道路决定了问题的答案。在《预见未来》一书中，前美国商务部副部长、Sonecon创办人兼主席罗伯特.夏皮罗（Robert Shapiro）洞察未来，预言世界各国在未来十几年间的格局。
      虽然十几年看似短暂，但是夏皮罗预见了全球化、老龄化社会、超级大国美国的崛起这三个历史性的推动力所带来的具有重要意义的变革，而这些变革将决定各国乃至芸芸众生的命运。

• 就算中国扩大军事力量、大力发展经济，在未来几十年内美国仍将是世界上唯一的超级大国，是维护世界安全稳定的中坚力量。
•美国和中国将会是世界上两大不可或缺的经济体，主宰全球化的进程。
•全球化将继续将重工业和大量的高端服务业工作机会从发达国家，如美国转移至中国、印度、印度尼西亚、墨西哥、罗马尼亚、土耳其等其他发展中国家。
•欧洲大国和日本将面临经济下滑的窘境和退休金体制等难题，行走在全球经济和地缘政治力量的边缘。
• 就算像美国、日本、中国这样的大国也将面临像医疗保险体制这样的难题，而整个世界将面临能源和气候变化的危机。