魔镜魔镜告诉我，台湾经济现如何？[ 台湾, 魔镜, 经济

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Taiwan's economy  Mirror, mirror on the wall

2009/2/12 台北   摘自《经济学家》印刷版
Feb 12th 2009 TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition

The ugliest economy of them all?
WHICH economy has been hit hardest by the global slump? In its back pages and on its website The Economist tracks 55 countries each week. Based on industrial production, Taiwan has suffered much the biggest shock. Output fell by 32% in the 12 months to December; in the fourth quarter it plunged at an annual rate of 62%. GDP figures, due on February 18th, will be grim.

Taiwan is one of the world’s most export-dependent economies, making many high-tech gadgets（n.小器件,小配件）for Western consumers, so it has been battered by the slump in global demand. Exports plunged by a record 44% in the year to January. The slide in exports has been exacerbated(v.恶化) by a drying up of trade credit. This partly explains why imports also fell by 57% over the period. Exports may therefore partly recover as credit improves. But Taiwan’s competitiveness has been eroded by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 40% against the South Korean won since the start of 2008.

Exports to China have declined by 59% over the past year, twice as fast as exports to America. Sales to China (over one-quarter of the total) consist largely of electronic components, and have been hit by massive Chinese destocking. The island’s electronics industry is enduring its worst-ever slump. Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based economist with Citibank, points out that Taiwan’s mainstay exports, such as flat-screen monitors and semiconductors, were in oversupply even before the global financial crisis. Now, he estimates, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, is running at around 35% of capacity.

Falling exports have, in turn, squeezed domestic spending. Unemployment rose to a six-year high of 5% in December, and the true picture may be far bleaker(adj.寒冷的). Taiwanese companies tend to wait until after the lunar new year holiday before swinging the axe. Average wages have also fallen by 5% in real terms over the past year. Many companies are ordering employees to take unpaid leave. The volume of retail sales slumped by 11% in the year to December.

最为糟糕的经济？
金融危机中哪里的经济受创最严重? 每个星期《经济学家》的封底和网站会追踪调查55个国家的经济形势。从工业生产上来说，台湾在此次经济的巨大冲击中损失惨重。到去年12月为止，在12个月内产出下降了32%；第四个季度更是以年62%的速度猛跌。截止至2月18日，台湾的国内生产总值不容乐观。

台湾是世界上出口依赖度最强的经济体之一，为西方消费者生产高科技的电子产品。由于全球需求锐减，台湾经济亦遭受打击。 到今年1月，出口量历史性地下跌了44%，出口额的下滑受贸易信贷危机的影响更加恶化。这也是在此期间进口额下降了57%。出口额也许会随着信贷的改善而在一定程度上反弹。但台湾已因其相对较强的货币而削弱了竞争力。自2008年初，新台币对韩元已经升值40%。

去年台湾对中国大陆的出口额也降低了59%，是对美国出口额下降速度的两倍。对中国大陆的销售额（超过总额的四分之一）主要包括了电子部件，由于中国大量缩减这方面的储量而受到损失。岛上的电子工业正经历着前所未有最萧条的时期。花旗集团驻台北的经济学家郑贞茂指出台湾的主要支柱出口产业，例如平面显示器和半导体，在全球金融危机爆发前已供应过量。他估计全球最大的签约芯片制造商——台湾半导体制造公司如今开工率大约在35%左右。

出口额的下降反过来制约了内需。去年12月失业率上升至5%，为六年来的最高点，而真实情况也许更为令人堪忧。台湾企业正打算过了农历新年后进行裁员。过去的一年中，实际平均收入也下降了5%。许多企业正要求员工休无薪假期。到去年12月为止，零售额总量暴跌了11%。