Gold so looks like the next mania.
看起来，下一轮投资狂热很有可能要在黄金市场掀起。
Witness the hype. The TV commercials. The once-skeptical investors jumping on board. The booming markets in Asia, where it has always been popular. Ominous whispers that global supply has 'peaked.' And, of course, new record-setting prices.
看看那些热火朝天的情形吧。电视广告铺天盖地；曾经犹疑不决的投资者也纷纷上船；一向对黄金大为追捧的亚洲，各地市场一片繁荣；人们惊慌传言，全球黄金供应已经“见顶”了。当然，价格也在不断刷出新高。
Equities had their turn. So did commodities. Why not gold?
股市反弹了，大宗商品反弹了；难道黄金就不能反弹？
Hucksters on TV and AM radio are urging you to stock up on gold to protect your money against 'the ravages of inflation.' But before you rush out and follow this advice too eagerly, take a look at this chart.
电视和广播里的广告都敦促人们赶紧囤黄金，让资金免受“通胀肆虐”之灾。但在急急忙忙地要按照这种建议去采取行动之前，请看一下旁边这张图表。
It shows the financial markets' best guess of where inflation will be for the next 20 years. (The numbers are found by comparing the difference between the yield on regular 20-year government bonds and the 'real' or after-inflation yield on inflation-protected bonds).
这张图表显示的是金融市场对未来20年通胀水平的预测。（数据通过比较20年期普通国债收益率与通胀保值国债剔除通胀因素后的实际收益率的差值得出。）
The first thing that stands out from the chart is the huge 'deflation' panic during the financial crisis last year. Inflation expectations collapsed as the turmoil led many people to fear a Japanese-style slump, or even a disastrous 1930s-style era when prices actually fell.
图表中最明显的是去年金融危机期间的巨大“通货紧缩”恐慌。危机让很多人担心出现一种日本式下滑，甚至是迎来一个上世纪30年代式的灾难性时代，从而物价普跌，所以当时通胀预期急剧下降。
The second thing that stands out from the chart? The massive, overwhelming, extraordinary... absence of any hyperinflation panic whatsoever.
图表中另一个最明显的是什么呢？那就是没有任何恶性通胀恐慌，“大大地”没有。
Right now the bond markets are predicting inflation will average about 2.4% over the next two decades. A few years ago they thought it would be closer to... 3%.
目前债券市场预期未来二十年的平均通胀率大约是2.4%；几年前的预期是接近3%。
And this is not a forecast for consumer price increases over the next one, three or five years. This is the forecast for the next two decades. The year 2039 is as distant to us as we are from 1989.
而且这也不是对未来一两年或三五年消费物价增幅的预测，而是对未来二十年的预测。2039年距离现在，就像1989年一样遥远。
Some years ago, when I was researching my first financial book, on sports betting, I was struck again and again by the human ability to see something that isn't there. (During the 2002 Super Bowl, fans continued to bet on the heavily favored St. Louis Rams to trounce the underdog new England Patriots well into the game - even as the Patriots were already showing the strength that would take them on to win.)
几年前开始研读第一本理财书（那本书是关于赌球）的时候，我一次又一次地为人类“无中见有”的能力感到震惊。（在2002年的超级杯(Super Bowl)比赛中，球迷们不断以重注赌押热门球队圣路易斯公羊(St. Louis Rams)，认为这支球队将大败当时处在不利地位的新英格兰爱国者(New England Patriots)，却看不到后者已经在显现的实力。结果是新英格兰爱国者取胜。）作者: x-ace 时间: 2009-12-14 16:31
丹佛Rocky Mountain Coin公司外的霓虹灯
People will see, and bet on, what they expect to see, what they want to see, or even what they are told they are seeing, as often as they will see, and bet on, what they are actually seeing.
如果人们预计会看到什么东西，或者是想看到什么东西，甚至是别人说他们眼前有什么东西，那么他们就会真的看到这种东西，并在上面押上赌注。这跟他们看见真正看见的东西并在上面押注一样常见。
In this instance it is remarkable the number of people who are 'seeing' hyperinflation down the road where none is, so far, apparent.
在这里，“看见”将来恶性通胀景象的人数量之多，令以称奇，而实际上到目前为止，未来出现恶性通胀的风险并不明显。
A few important notes.
有几点值得注意。
First, the inflation being forecast here is the official rate, based on the consumer price index. Conspiracy theories aside, the CPI is certainly open to challenge as an inflation measure. Some economists argue it understates the 'real' inflation figure. That's an important caveat to the data in the chart.
首先，这里所预测的通胀率是官方通胀率，是以消费者价格指数(CPI)为基础的。抛开阴谋论，CPI是不是一个准确的通胀指标，肯定是值得商榷的。一些经济学家认为，这个指标低估了“真实”的通胀水平。这是有关图表数据一个重要的注意之处。
Second, this forecast is one embedded in bond prices. So it's merely a market forecast, not one written in stone. Obviously the bond market may have it wrong. Inflation may come in much higher than expected. Indeed that has to be a major risk, and investors need to be on guard against it.
其次，这种预期是反映在债券价格中的，所以它仅仅是一种市场预测，并非恒久不变。显然债券市场的预测可能有错，届时通胀率可能远远高于预料。这种情况确实是一个重大风险，是投资者需要加以防范的。
But before gold bugs point to the booming gold price as 'proof' that the bond market is wrong on inflation, they need -- at least intellectually -- to concede that the reverse might also be true: That it might be the gold price that is out of line, and the bond market that has it correct.
但“拜金主义者”不要急着说，金价的不断上涨是债券市场通胀预期不准确的“证据”。在下这样的结论以前，他们需要──至少是在理智上──承认，反过来说可能也是对的：可能是金价所反映的预期错了，而债券市场是对的。
Third, when the federal government prints vast numbers of dollars and runs huge deficits, as it has in recent years, financial theory would argue that major inflation ought to follow in due course. I am among those who feared this outcome, and I still do. That's why I wouldn't buy regular long-term Treasury bonds, other than inflation-protected ones, because I don't think they are cheap enough to compensate for the risk. But, so far, my fears haven't been justified.
第三，当联邦政府像近几年这样印刷大量钞票、维持高额赤字的时候，金融理论会告诉我们，严重的通货膨胀该来的时候就会到来。和其他一些人一样，我也曾担心会出现这个结果，现在也还是有这种担心。因此我不会购买普通长期国债，要买也只买通胀保值国债，因为我觉得，普通国债的价格还没有便宜到足以补偿通胀风险的水平。但到目前为止，我的担心是没有根据的。
There's been no inflation -- consumer prices have fallen -- and right now the bond market doesn't see any ahead. Any successful investor needs to see what's in front of them, rather than merely what they wanted or expected to see.
目前没有任何通货膨胀──消费者价格水平已经下降，债券市场也不认为将来有任何通货膨胀。投资者要获得成功，必须看到眼前真实存在的东西，而不是自己想看到、或预计会看到的东西。
So if the booming gold price says anything important about the future, it isn't simply proof that inflation is about to skyrocket. There are lots of things keeping inflation low, as well. (Bijal Shah, global strategist at investment firm Icap in London, thinks U.S. inflation may be as low as 1% late next year)
所以，如果说金价的上涨确实能够预测什么重要的情况的话，那也不能简单地说，它就是通胀率将扶摇直上的证据。现在有很多因素也都在遏制通胀率的上升。（伦敦投资公司毅联汇业(ICAP)的全球策略师沙赫(Bijal Shah)认为，明年晚期美国通胀率可能最低只有1%。）
And even if gold works over the very long term as a hedge against inflation, be aware that long term may be too long for you, the individual investor, anyway.
而且，即使黄金可以成为一个在非常长的时期内对冲通货膨胀的工具，也要注意到，这段时期对作为个人投资者的你来说，可能毕竟是过于漫长。
Gold prices can fall for years, even decades, in real terms. Someone who bought it near the last peak, in 1979-1980, saw most of their purchasing power erode over the next 20 years. In practical terms gold was a disastrous investment.
按实际价格计算，金价的下跌可以持续几年甚至是几十年。有些人在1979-1980年上次见顶的时候买进，结果在后来的20年里，大部分购买力都蒸发不见了。实际操作起来，黄金是一个很糟糕的投资工具。
Peter Bernstein, the legendary investor and financial writer who died earlier this year, observed casually in his classic 2000 book 'The Power of Gold' that 'the purchasing power of gold in terms of goods and services was many times greater in the Middle Ages than it is today.' Since publication, of course, prices have roughly quadrupled. However, in real terms, even today it has only just recovered the ground lost from typical levels seen 30 years ago, and it remains far below its momentary 1980 peak of $850. (In today's dollars that would be about $2,200 an ounce)
今年早些时候逝世的传奇投资家、金融作家伯恩斯坦(Peter Bernstein)，曾在2000年的经典著作《黄金的力量》(The Power of Gold)中不经意地提到，在中世纪，黄金用于商品和服务的购买力是今天的许多倍。这本书出版以来，金价已经翻了两番，这是大家都知道的。但按实际价格计算，也只是回到了30年前的一般水平，比1980年的峰值850美元仍然要低上好多。（按今天的币值计算，这个价格相当于每盎司2200美元。）
If gold really is effective as an inflation protection, that may apply most to institutions with very long memories indeed -- like central banks, university endowments, and wronged first wives.
如果说黄金真的是一种有效的通胀保值工具的话，这倒有可能最适用于投资期限非常长的机构，像中央银行或者大学捐赠基金，还有被伤害的发妻们。
Maybe gold is the next mania. If so, there is still a lot of money to be made speculating. Remember you make the most money in a bubble right at the end, and usually on the silliest stocks. A gold mania probably won't burst until we see, say, 'GoldontheMoon.com' raise $20 billion in a heavily-oversubscribed IPO.
或许黄金就是下一个狂热的投资领域。但通过投机，还是有很多钱可以挣。要知道，最赚钱的时候就是在泡沫行将终结的时候，并且通常是在最愚蠢的股票上。黄金热要破灭，可能需要等到一家交易 “月球黄金”的电子商务网站首次公开募股(IPO)严重超额认购、募集资金达200亿美元的时候。
But betting on a bubble is a very different thing from relying on a 'safe haven' from inflation.
但是，通过赌泡沫获利，跟依靠黄金规避通胀风险，完全是两码事。
