To the people, food is the most important issue under the sky.” So says an old Chineseproverb; but if that is so, the clouds may be darkening. As the world’s population grows –and as its people grow more prosperous and more carnivorous – it will only become moredifficult to provide a plentiful supply of food at affordable prices.
中国有句古老的俗语是“民以食为天”。但如果它说得对,那么天空可能开始乌云密布。随着世界人口的增长,且人们变得更富足、更爱吃肉,以民众支付得起的价格供应足够粮食只会越来越难。
In many countries, food security is already an urgent challenge, as the world food price crisisof 2007-08 showed. According to research by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, globalgrain production will have to increase by 70 per cent to meet the rise in food demand caused bypopulation growth, changing dietary habits and urbanisation. The world has no shortage offertile land and every prospect of meeting that target. But the crops will not plant themselves.Meeting the world’s need for food will require long-term investment – which, in developingcountries, will have to increase by as much as 50 per cent from the current level.
粮食安全现已成为许多国家面对的一项紧迫挑战,这在2007年至2008年的世界粮价危机中得到了印证。联合国粮农组织(UN Food and Agriculture Organisation)的研究表明,只有把全球粮食产量提高70%,才能满足人口增加、饮食习惯变化和城市化所导致的粮食需求上升。世界不缺少良田,很有希望实现上述目标。但农作物需要人去种植。满足世界粮食需求,需要进行长期投资。在发展中国家,必须将粮食长期投资从现有水平上提高50%。
Since governments everywhere are stretched, the private sector and institutional investorshave a significant role to play. But it is difficult to attract small and short-term investors to thissector since crop prices are volatile, assets (once acquired) are difficult to dispose of quickly –and that is not to mention the burden of onerous regulation.
While some private capital hasbeen drawn to businesses in sectors such as agricultural supply-chain management, processingand distribution, it has by and large shunned investment in the assets most closely involved inincreasing the food supply. The drought of capital afflicts the entire industry, frominfrastructure, such as irrigation, to grain and animal protein production, to support servicessuch as transport, storage and processing. This is a serious misallocation of funds. All theseareas require investment if adequate supply is to be produced.
由于各地政府手头拮据,私人部门和机构投资者可以从中扮演重要的角色。但这个行业很难吸引到短线小投资者,因为农产品价格波动剧烈,且资产一旦购入便很难快速处置,更别提还要承受繁重的监管负担了。尽管有些私人资本被吸引进入了农业供应链管理、加工与分销等领域,但基本不会投资与增加粮食供应密切相关的资产。资本匮乏困扰着整个粮食产业,从灌溉等基础设施,到谷物与动物蛋白质生产,再到运输、加工与存储等支持性服务。这是一种严重的资金错配现象。要想提供充足的粮食供应,就必须对所有这些领域进行投资。
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